President Trump and the Fed
After a period dominated by trade tariffs, President Trump has shifted his focus back to the Federal Reserve and Chairman Powell (called “Mr. Too Late” in a post on Truth Social), triggering renewed market volatility by casting doubt on the central bank’s independence:
- Fed Chair Jerome Powell, whose term ends in May 2026, emphasized that the Fed is legally independent and can only be removed for cause
- Several Fed officials, including Chicago Fed President Goolsbee, have publicly defended the central bank’s autonomy
- Even if Powell were removed, FOMC policy decisions are made by majority vote, limiting unilateral influence
Gold shining brighter than ever
Gold rose above 3’500 USD per ounce for the first time earlier this week before pairing some gains – move was triggered by sharp sell-off from US assets on Monday
- Spike came after President Trump’s repeated calls to fire Chair Powell threatening central bank independence
- Bullion has surged over 25% this year, outperforming nearly all other assets, as investors fled from assets exposed to trade war shocks
- Dollar’s loss is Gold’s gain – the current “lack of love” for US assets means that gold is the only safe haven currently available
- Many analysts forecast that the metal could hit 4’000 USD per ounce during the course of 2026
Yen to break psychological level
The yen advanced past 140 against the dollar amid threats to the Federal Reserve’s independence and heightened risks concerning tariffs
- The yen’s appreciation came as Trump’s trade war boosted demand for haven assets against US assets
- Speculative traders became most bullish on the yen on record, and investors will closely watch a meeting between Japanese and US finance chiefs this week
Helvetia and Baloise – Merger of equals
Helvetia and Baloise announced a merger of equals, forming Helvetia Baloise Holding AG, based on cultural alignment and shared values:
- The combined group will become Switzerland’s second-largest insurance company with a 20% market share and largest employer in the Swiss insurance sector
- The merger is expected to generate annual run-rate synergies of approx. CHF 350 million, the new entity aims for a ~20% increase in dividend capacity by the 2029 financial year, driven by enhanced cash generation
- With CHF 20 billion in combined business volume across eight countries and a global specialty insurance platform, the group will become a leading European insurer
Greece – From crisis to credibility in 15 yrs
Many will remember when the Greek debt crisis began 15 years ago — the country’s transformation over this period has been truly remarkable:
- Debt Reduction: Greece’s public debt has decreased by over 40 percentage points since 2020, reaching 154% of GDP in 2024
- Banking Sector Recovery: Greek banks have stabilized and returned to profitability, resuming dividend payments after 16 years
- Economic Outlook: Greece’s economic output is projected to rise by 2.3% in 2025, surpassing the eurozone average
- Credit Rating Upgrade: Following Moody’s decision to upgrade Greece’s sovereign credit rating to investment grade on March 14, 2025, S&P raised the rating by an additional notch on April 18
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