PKB's Market Espresso
July 23, 2025

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Trump strikes deal with Japan

President Trump has reached a trade agreement with Japan that imposes a 15% tariff on imports, including automobiles — a reduction from the originally proposed 25% levy

  • In return, Japan has agreed to accept cars and trucks built to US motor vehicle safety standards without imposing additional regulatory requirements
  • The deal also features a $550 billion fund established by Japan to invest in the United States, though the timeline and final terms of the agreement have yet to be finalized
  • Japan also agreed to buy 100 Boeing aircrafts, boost rice purchases by 75% and buy $8 billion in agricultural and other products while hiking defense spending with American firms to $17 billion annually (from $14 billion)
  • Japan will also participate in a stalled LNG pipeline project in Alaska

US vs. China - Round 3

The third round of trade talks between the United States and China is expected to take place next week in Stockholm, with Scott Bessent scheduled to meet with his Chinese counterparts

  • Aim of talks will be to extend the tariff truce that is due to expire on August 12th as well as to widen the discussions touching a broad array of topics such as Beijing’s continued purchases of Iranian and Russian oil
  • Since Scott Bessent became lead negotiator, the Trump administration has softened its stance toward China — relaxing restrictions on less advanced semiconductors, while Beijing has increased shipments of rare earth magnets
  • Bessent hopes China will scale back its manufacturing overcapacity and shift focus towards developing a stronger consumer-driven economy

So far, so good, again

Although it is still too early to make an overall assessment of the US quarterly reports, the results published so far are positive

  • Of the 88 companies that published results (17% of the index), almost 85% exceeded analysts’ expectations, with an average EPS surprise of more than 6%, with an important contribution from the financial and consumer discretionary sectors
  • Over the next few weeks we will have the results of the Magnificent 7, the progress of which it will be important to monitor

UniCredit drops bid for BPM

UniCredit has abandoned its bid for Banco BPM, ending a takeover saga that has dragged on for more than eight months

  • The decision follows UniCredit’s failure to secure government approval for the deal — despite recent progress, a definitive resolution was unlikely before the end of the extended offer period
  • UniCredit CEO Andrea Orcel said the prolonged uncertainty over the application of Italy’s golden power rules (under which the Italian government can impose conditions on transactions involving strategic assets) brings no advantage to the bank or its shareholders
  • UniCredit signaled it remains open to future M&A opportunities, provided they align with its broader strategy and contribute to long-term value creation

UNESCOut (…again)

US President Donald Trump plans to withdraw the US from UNESCO

  • According to Trump the ideological agenda of the organization is not in line with the policies (America First) for which Americans voted last November
  • Trump had already withdrawn from UNESCO during his first term, decision that was reversed by Biden – the US exit will come into effect at the end of 2026
  • Over the past 5 years the US has provided roughly 20% of all of UNESCO’s funding
  • State Department spokeswoman Tammy Bruce has also criticized UNESCO’s decision to allow Palestine to join as a member contributing to anti-Israel rhetoric within the organization

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