PKB's Market Espresso
July 16, 2025

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Japan’s 10 year yield edging higher

Japanese 10 year yields have touched the highest level since 2008 at 1.595% as a series of election tax-cut pledges have put investors on edge

  • The incoming upper house election scheduled for July 20th could see the ruling coalition (LDP) lose its majority with opposition largely campaigning for expensive plans to lower sales tax
  • Bank of Japan’s policy normalization is not helping support long term yields – the central bank ended negative rates in March and has since started reducing its purchases of government bonds
  • Another factor is persistent inflation. Japan’s so-called inflation – excluding fresh food and energy – has remained well above 2% for over a year and recently came in at 3.3% year-on-year

US Core CPI rises less than expected

Underlying US inflation rose in June less than expected for the fifth consecutive month despite tariff impact – lower car prices helped offset gains in other goods exposed to tariffs

  • Core CPI for June increased 0.2% from May, below estimates of 0.3% – on a year-on-year basis it advanced 2.9% (in line with estimates)
  • Companies are beginning to pass some tariff-costs to consumers, with goods categories exposed to President Trump’s levies rising at the fastest pace in recent years
  • The weaker than expected number could increase President Trump’s pressure on the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates

Nvidia, AMD resume AI chip sales

Nvidia Corp. and Advanced Micro Devices Inc. plan to resume sales of some AI chips in China after securing Washington’s assurances that such shipments would get approved

  • This represents a dramatic reversal from the Trump administration’s earlier stance on measures designed to limit Beijing’s AI ambitions
  • US government officials told Nvidia they would green-light export licenses for its H20 artificial intelligence accelerator, the company said in a blog post on Monday. This move may add billions to Nvidia’s revenue this year
  • AMD received similar assurances from the US Commerce Department and plans to restart shipments of its MI308 chips
  • Shares of AMD jumped almost 6.5% while Nvidia rose as much as 4%

Amazon Prime Day is prime again

Amazon.com Inc.’s Prime Day event was “the biggest Prime Day event ever” and exceeded any four-day period that included the deal days, according to the company

  • Many Americans used Prime Day markdowns to replenish essential items, such as clothing, household essentials, pet products, and groceries, rather than buying discretionary items, according to data provider Numerator

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