All eyes on employment ...
Upcoming readouts on the US labor market will give Federal Reserve (and market) more insights on future interest rate cuts – With inflation slowing, Powell shifted attention from inflation to employment indicating
- On Friday non-farm payrolls for August expected at +165K (compared to 114K in July) with unemployment at 4.2% (from 4.3%)
- The unemployment rate, which now stands at 4.3%, is particularly important as it is already above the Fed’s forecast
- The initial jobless claims on Thursday will get a lot of attention
- July’s low reading contributed to the rout in equity markets in the first week of August
... but other data is important too
- While all eyes are on Friday’s payrolls, other data will add colour to the macro picture
- Yesterday’s Manufacturing ISM, at 47.2, was marginally up but below expectations
- The index has been below 50 for five months in a row
- Notably, the price component was up, signaling potential inflation pressures
- The job openings JOLT figures out today will help assessing the strength of the labour market: the ratio of job openings to unemployed people should decline from 1.2 to 1.55
- Tomorrow’s Services ISM is expected to fall to 51.1, still in expansionary territory
- The ADP employment –expectation is 141k- will pave the way for Friday’s numbers
German local elections
All three parties in Scholz’s center-left coalition suffered painful losses while the nationalist Alternative for Germany (AfD) and a new anti-establishment populist party booked record gains in the eastern states of Thuringia and Saxony last weekend.
- The far right’s first victory in a German state election in the post-war era with a 32.8% showing in Thuringia and 30.6% in Saxony (behind the mainstream conservative Christian Democrats);
- For now Scholz’s coalition should hold power, but situation will definitely create more political tensions in the build-up to next year’s national elections;
- Immigration and stance on Ukraine-Russia are the main issues that will dominate the next campaign.
Auf Wiedersehen Volkswagen?
Volkswagen considering to close factories in Germany for the first time in 87 years citing the specter of major cost-cutting measures.
- One car plant and one component plant in Germany are considered obsolete;
- Company also announced it is also trying to end the company’s thirty year old pact with workers to keep jobs secure;
- Main target is its underperforming “Volkswagen” brand – whose profit margins are being squeezed by a difficult transition into EVs and by a slowdown in consumer spending;
- Company has lost momentum in China (biggest market) and fallen far behind competitors in the EV segment.
Company cash burn : what of buy-backs?
Share buybacks and continuous dividend increases were an important driver for the US equity markets due to their cash generation. These drivers could soon disappear:
- Cash as a percentage of total assets for S&P 500 companies fell to 8.8% in July, the lowest level since 2009.
- This percentage is now close to the 2008 Financial Crisis low of 8.0%. This percentage has declined 4 points from near multi-decade highs.
- S&P 500 companies have spent most of their excess cash which may limit future dividends and share buybacks.
- In other words, firms may be more willing to rebuild cash levels and therefore reduce capital returned to shareholders.
- Will record stock buybacks fade out soon?
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