PKB's Market Espresso
June 13, 2024

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ECB back to hawkish cuts?

Two years after its first hike, as expected, the ECB cut interest rates by 25bp from 4.50% to 4.25% - the first time ever that it has anticipated the Fed in starting a cutting cycle.

  • Lack of guidance by Governing Council on future path and higher inflation forecasts was slightly hawkish 
  • Data dependency was once again the leitmotiv of President Lagarde’s conference 
  • Emphasis on accumulating data “much later in the summer”, suggests that a July rate cut is effectively off the table
  • September anyone?

Fed preview

  • The Fed meets this week and will announce its monetary policy decision on Wednesday evening (an unchanged outcome is widely expected) 
  • It will be anticipated by a few hours by the US CPI data in an interesting coincidence Core CPI for May expected at 0.3% MoM* 
  • Friday’s payrolls data  showed a robust  labor market. 
  • Macro data seems  increasingly unlikely to usher a rate cut  before December
  • The Dollar remains  well supported

Macron's gambit

  • The big news of the night is French President Macron calling snap parliamentary elections for June 30 after he received a drubbing at the hands of his far-right rival Marine Le Pen 
  • His German counterpart Olaf Scholz didn’t fare much better, with his Social Democrats suffering their worst performance in an EU election in history 
  • Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni secured top spot in Rome • The three centrist groups (EPP, the Socialists and the liberals) will hold a comfortable majority, despite the far-right gaining seats, while the Greens suffered losses 
  • The euro slipped vs USD and CHF 

Water - growing opportunity

Global resource scarcity drives demand for more sustainable solutions through increasing regulatory requirements, water reuse and recycling systems, and boosting integration of the circular economy and resource-efficient design.

  • Main demand for water resources and infrastructure is driven by population growth, urbanisation, climate change, water scarcity and pollution. 
  • Leaking water infrastructure (c.30%-40% of water is lost annually through leakage in water infrastructure). 
  • Water and flow solutions are also requested in industrial water treatment, water distribution, semiconductor, marine, waste-/stormwater management, chemical process industry, cooling, life science and data centres (dramatically rising). 
  • The US has announced a $55bn investment in water infrastructure. Saudi Arabia has allocated $105bn for 3,300 water sector projects, plenty of others are on the way. 
  • Water infrastructure construction activity is projected to grow by 5% (CAGR) between 2023 and 2028.

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The analyses and forecasts contained in this publication are based on assumptions, estimates and hypothetical models which may prove to be incorrect and therefore lead to substantially different results.