France: Barnier Hanging by a Thread
French lawmakers will hold a no-confidence vote later today after Prime Minister Barnier forced an unpopular budget on Monday
- Far-right leader Le Pen expected to join forces with left wing coalition in order to topple government
- Given current fragmented National Assembly it is likely that government will collapse
- Initial budget bill contained 60 billion Euro of tax increases and spending cuts aimed to bring down deficit to 5% of economic output (from 6.1% estimated this year)
- Some last minute concessions to Le Pen were made (no tax hikes on electricity and no reductions in drug reimbursements) but Barnier did not give in on the government plan to delay indexation of pensions to inflation
Tavares Resigns Amid Stellantis Struggles
- Carlos Tavares stepped down as Stellantis CEO following a dispute with the board about how to address weakening sales.
- Chairman John Elkann will lead an interim committee to manage the company until a new CEO is appointed in 2025.
- Stellantis faced declining sales, especially in electric vehicles, and issued a profit warning in September, contributing to a 40% drop in stock value YTD.
- Tavares’s cost-cutting measures, which included reducing vehicle platforms and eliminating jobs, led to criticisms from unions, dealers, and suppliers about quality issues and brand damage.
- The United Auto Workers president welcomed Tavares’s departure, calling it a step toward better management and treatment of workers.
Electrification – Strong Growth Ahead
Grids and their technical value chain becoming a bottleneck not only in the energy transition but also slow down the growth of AI applications.
- Grids expansion scenario: Globally 52mio km of new lines and 30mio km of replacement needed to keep up with transitions (2022 – 2040)
- Transformers: Transformers and cables are the most stressed parts in the value chain
- Material needs: Aluminum (5x, until 2050) and Copper (2x, 2050) are most requested in the future
- Challenges: Permission process and financing are the biggest threats. Germany process needs about 10’000 permission to start a new grid network
- Investments: Enormous investments are needed worldwide along the entire grid value chain, the high-growth cycle is just starting now
Disclaimer
The information, products, data, services and instruments contained or described in this publication are for information purposes only and constitute neither an advertisement or recommendation nor an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any product.
The financial products described in this publication are not suitable for all investors. The information contained in this publication does not represent any financial, legal, tax and/or other recommendations. Any investment or other decision should not be made solely on the basis of this document. Before making any investment decision, it is recommended that you seek a thorough examination of your situation and the advice of a qualified specialist.
Although the information contained in this document has been compiled by PKB on the basis of or with reference to sources, materials and systems believed to be reliable and accurate, PKB does not guarantee its currency, accuracy or completeness.
PKB accepts no liability, to the fullest extent permitted by applicable laws and/or regulations, for loss or damage of any kind arising directly or indirectly from the content, accuracy, completeness or otherwise of the content or any third party content referred to in this publication.
The analyses and forecasts contained in this publication are based on assumptions, estimates and hypothetical models which may prove to be incorrect and therefore lead to substantially different results.